BUS644: Operations Management Suppliers & Forecasting Methods

Week 3 Discussion 1

Suppliers

Should a firm attempt to have fewer or more suppliers?

What are the advantages and disadvantages of each approach?

Your initial post should be 200-250 words.

Week 3 Discussion 2

Forecasting Methods

Read Problem 6 in Chapter 6 of your textbook.

Calculate and answer parts a through d. Include all calculations and spreadsheets in your post.

Explain why the moving average method was used instead of another forecasting method.

What might be another forecasting method that could prove to be just as useful?

Your initial post should be 200-250 words.

6. The figures below indicate the number of mergers that took place in the savings and loan industry over a 12-year period.

Year               Mergers                      Year                Mergers

2000               46                                2006               83

2001               46                                2007               123

2002               62                                2008               97

2003               45                                2009               186

2004               64                                2010               225

2005               61                                2011               240

a.) Calculate a 5-year moving average to forecast the number of mergers for 2012.

b.) Use the moving average technique to determine the forecast for 2005 to 2011. Calculate measurement error using MSE and MAD.

c.) Calculate a 5-year weighted moving average to forecast the number of mergers for 2012.    Use weights of 0.10, 0.15, 0.20, 0.25, and 0.30, with the most recent year weighted being the largest.

d.) Use regression analysis to forecast the number of mergers in 2012.

Class Text

Vonderembse, M. A., & White, G. P. (2013). Operations management. San Diego, CA:

Bridge point Education, Inc.

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